A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
